Going mad waiting for the weather report...

The Sydney to Hobart seems to have so many fixed variables - at least when it comes to the line honours contenders.  The boats are a largely known entity, the crews are a largely known entity.  There's a lot of consistency that can be relied upon every single race for Hobart.

But, consistently, one of the biggest variables, particularly for the hotly contended overall handicap winner competition, is the weather.  And one of the best tools for attempting to predict what Mother Nature may offer up the race contenders is PredictWind. 

PredictWind is a dream come true - as a surfer, sailor, and kite flyer with my 2 year old son, PredictWind tells me not only what's going on, but what is going to be going on and when.  Even without needing to know what the wind is doing on a particular day (the whole premise of the site) its an awesome tool for knowing when I can get out for a run and when I need to turn the air-conditioning on - its a complete meteorological office in my pocket.

Anyway, I thought, as we are just over two weeks out from the start of the race, I would check to see if there is a future weather update prediction just yet.  And the answer, was of course, no. 

Here is a look at two possible paths to Hobart based on current weather information (US and Canadian MET files) .  It looks pretty typical - on one hand there's the 'hug the shore' option which covers less distance, and on the other there's the 'head offshore' (to the EAC - East Australian Current):

MARLIN: "Crush? Really? Okay Crush, listen I need to get to the East Australian Current. EAC?"
CRUSH: "Ha ha ha, dude, ha ha, you're ridin' it, dude! Check it out!"
- Finding Nemo

The EAC can be a race winner for the large boats in years that there are light winds because it will carry the boat south.  It can also be of assistance to the slower heavier boats in the fleet but it rarely pays off because the heavier the boat the more effort it takes to get there - so it tends to lead to races in which the line honours winner takes the double (line honours and overall handicap).

At present, the prediction (as previously stated, this is not the actual, it is based off current information), is for a downwind flyer (around 60% of the time) with good winds (8 - 20 knots 80% of the time).  This would lead to a very quick line honours race (1.7 - 1.8 days, with Wild Oats XI's record looking like it could fall), but would also mean a predictable front of the fleet win overall as these conditions suit the newer lighter boats much more than the older heavier ones.  A fast race with a quick result if this eventuates.


Who knows what may come.  I think I have revealed my hopes for this years Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race in this post - a bit lumpy, but not too bumpy - but Mother Nature is one of the great uncertainties of the race, and has the ability to equalise the fleet, or aid the front runners leaving the chasers for dead.  Either way, a new race record, or a hotly contested overall handicap win, it promises to be exciting!

- Evan